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Bitcoin Price Analysis 3 November, 2016

This week, the price of bitcoin traded 19% higher month on month, after consolidating at $650, before an exponential rise to $740. Traders are acutely aware the infamous digital currency is closing in on its 2016 pre-halving high. Media coverage of bitcoin’s phenomenal rise continues to fueled excitement. Meanwhile, core developers will officially activate SegWit 0.13.1 soft fork option on November 15. Already, a slew of wallet companies have announced support for SegWit. Bitcoin is gearing up for an incredible bull run!

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The Relative strength indicator RSI, touched the 70 overbought threshold, the first time since July. The last times price broke strongly into overbought zone on the weekly were new highs in 2013 and the All time high. This time, it coincides with an impending retest of $759, a pre-halving high from July. There is plenty of room for a spike to $850.

“In the short term, it looks like sideways chop or a minor correction are the most likely outcomes. A sudden push above resistance seems unlikely. It’s always healthy to have some sideways chop. The Bollinger bands are starting to tighten which is getting me excited”

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At this level, just below $736 resistance and support stretching back to February 2014, a consolidation is probable as buyers defend the price level. we may just get more sideways until the weekend. It is risk to take a short position. Traders should be in a position by now.

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The upwards curving slope resembles the pattern from August 2015, right before price blew past $500. There is an element of readjusting fundamentals in this price action – SegWit was a huge milestone and should fuel upward pressure, the US elections are 2 weeks away, and the US Fed Prosecutor Kathryn Haun, Assistant Attorney admitted

“the reason United States government did not shut down bitcoin is because they “recognize you can’t shut down bitcoin.”

Generally, it feels like an opportune time for bitcoin to assert itself. Higher highs is great for attention. As of writing this, price sits at $727 on Bitstamp.

BITCOIN FUNDAMENTALS

Bitcoin price on 12/31/2017 will be “higher”

Barry Silbert, CEO and Founder of Digital Currency Investment group, is one of the few serial entrepreneurs taking bitcoin mainstream. As one of the earliest investors into bitcoin startups, he launched the first mainstream bitcoin asset vehicle, GBTC. Barry spoke to Bitcoin.com about his top 10 predictions for 2017.

Top of the list was bitcoin as a neo – asset class

“Bitcoin as a store-of-value reemerges as a key theme, expect 2017 to be a very good year for Bitcoin’s price.”

Barry has extensive industry knowledge and networks on both mainstream and crypto anarchists. When he speaks, we listen.

WinkleVoss Bitcoin ETF Approval on Hold

While the Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF awaits SEC approval, Bloomberg finance ran with a story on “Five Reasons the Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF Should Be Approved”. Despite the Winklevoss Bitcoin trusts’ 610% return since 2013, the ETF filings are on hold until additional public comments are received.Like most things in the bitcoin ecosystem, concerns by the SEC centre around fuzzy/non-existent regulations, security of platforms and the stability of the asset itself.

A bitcoin etf would break new ground, and provide an alternative to the private open ended GBTC trust, that trades at a premium on most market days.“This kind of situation is why people love the ETF structure, with its creation/redemption process that helps keep prices and net asset values closer together via arbitrage.

Bitcoin Bull Resumes

Mainstream media has picked up on Bitcoin’s bullish trend, and running with the story! Typically, when price takes a huge turn, media outlets get in on the hype train, feeding into itself and Bitcoin’s collective price psyche.

Quartz published “Bitcoin is closing in on its 2016 peak. A handful of theories attempt to explain the rally”. Naturally, journalists are intent on getting to the bottom cause of price movement. China keeps reemerging as a catalyst. Bitcoin as yuan hedge and as a capital control escape tool are trotted out whenever price goes up. But, “Chinese exchange owners have reported that their customers are speculator, not people trying to stash money outside the country.”

Bitcoin Weekly Price Forecast

This week, I am neutral to bullish. There is room for more upside, and the only resistance upto $850 is the $758 high from July. A sideways consolidation this week is well within expectations. Breaking a 26 month resistance level will require extreme buying pressure. We might see another week or so of price appreciation before the next pullback.

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“If this rally continues to steepen, this is the one that will pierce ATH. The question is will it bounce or FOMO past it.”

Already, Chinese Yuan devaluation has made for an interesting dynamic. As the US elections draw near, Bitcoin might absorb some of that excitement and speculation on a Trump win, and attempt a new all time high. The psychological barrier of breaking the all time high is pretty big!“I think it’s a fairly safe bet that if Bitcoin gets seriously near the old ATH (>$1000), it will continue upwards a good deal further. Keep in mind that the last bubble started around $100.”

2 comments

  1. I’m sure I must be missing something. I don’t totally understand Bitcoin and have (What may seem to most) a stupid question.

    I’ve been wanting to purchase a bitcoin, the price of one now being about 740 dollars(USD). If I were to purchase 1 Bitcoin for 740 dollars US, would that have the same buying power of 740 US dollars..?? I guess what I don’t understand is how Bitcoin compares to US dollars when you go to spend it.

    If this is a stupid question, please be gentle, but please explain the comparison. Thank you for your help.

    • If you buy 1 bitcoin for 740 dollars you basically still have 740 dollars, but only in bitcoins. The price of 1 bitcoin may rise up to 800 dollars and than your initial 740 dollars becomes 800 dollars, it can also become worth less.

      Keep in mind you don’t have to buy 1 bitcoin, you can buy even buy 0.001 bitcoins if you wish so. To buy bitcoin you first have to create an bitcoin wallet. For beginners I would recommend opening an online blockchain wallet.

      Good luck!

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